Improving Understandings of Consequences, Vulnerabilities and Adaptation Strategies to Climate Change Related Hazards

The project goal is to facilitate hazard mitigation planning by coastal communities facing the potential consequences of climate change. The PI will use the VCAPS (Vulnerability and Consequences Adaptation Planning Scenarios) process which involves a structured dialogue and mediated modeling process, to help community decision-makers and stakeholders create scenarios of the possible effects of climate stressors on their community. The process is intended to focus the discussion productively, integrate the participants’ knowledge of local conditions with scientific information, and create a record of shared understanding on which to base planning decisions. The results of the VCAPS process will be compared to other planning methods and feedback elicited from practitioners and local officials to improve the process.

Objectives: To improve the process by which communities plan for managing coastal hazards associated with climate change. To integrate locally specific knowledge with scientific information about climate hazards. To provide guidance to practitioners and planners about integrating climate change adaptation planning into existing coastal planning activities (e.g., Hazard Mitigation Planning) and about selection of climate change adaptation planning methods.

Methodology: To implement the VCAPS (Vulnerability and Consequences Adaptation Planning Scenarios) process, which is a structured dialogue and mediated modeling process in which community decision-makers and stakeholders collectively design scenarios that depict how climate stressors (hazards) impact their community. The results of a standard hazard mitigation planning process will be compared to the hazard mitigation planning process supplemented with VCAPS. We will then compare the information learned, practicality, and feasibility of VCAPS to other options for climate change adaptation planning. Additional criteria will be elicited from practitioners and local officials to extend the comparison and guidance offered.

Rationale: The VCAPS process promotes structured and efficient dialogue and deliberation among a diverse group of individuals. It uses the concepts of vulnerability analysis and the causal chain of hazard events to focus discussion productively. The process is mediated by a computer diagramming tool that enables us to summarize the content of these discussions in real-time. This promotes reaching closure on the different discussion points and makes the dialogue efficient. It also creates a record of a shared understanding of the local adaptation issue.