Modeling Technology Policy for Energy and Water: Applications and Extensions of System Dynamics

This project seeks to undertake a set of case studies on modeling technology policy in Abu Dhabi. The proposed cases will concentrate on energy and water, two critical sectors of the Emirate's economy, and utilize system dynamics as the primary modeling approach. The abundance of energy has been the foundation of the modern UAE economy. By contrast, fresh water remains relatively scarce. Energy use is essential in the provision of water, resulting in close connections between energy and water.

More specifically, we propose to concentrate on solar energy in the energy sector, and on desalination in the water domain. We shall address each of these separately and, to the extent required, we will examine the relevant interconnections. From a sustainability perspective, the Emirates seek to attain (a) energy sustainability, (b) sustainable uses of energy in the water sector, and (c) sustainable strategies for overall water provision.

We present the scope of work for modeling technology policy (and implementation potentials) in terms of: (a) the methodology (system dynamics), (b) the substantive research domain (solar energy and desalination technology), and (c) the knowledge management necessity

By necessity technology policy is a complex process. It always involves institutional, financial, managerial, material, policy and other factors that represent - hard' as well as - soft' variables. Given the inherent complexities and uncertainties, we will utilize system dynamics as the basic modeling approach.

Taking into account the energy sector as a whole, we shall focus on solar energy, sources and uses. In the water sector, we will concentrate specifically on desalination technology, while also taking into account the contextual issues. In each case, we shall (1) distinguish between traditional and emergent technologies, and (2) consider the technology imperatives for sustainable development.

Through this project we shall consider the knowledge management requirements that are essential for harnessing knowledge of relevance and building upon as well as extending existing knowledge. Knowledge management is a term usually confined to the domain of information technology. Our focus on the systematic collection and organization of knowledge in this project pertains to the substantive materials that will constitute the fundamental knowledge-resources in the course of this project. This includes all (a) all background materials (b) case specific resources and (c) information, data, materials and reports developed in the course of this project.

We are developing the conceptual and empirical foundations by undertaking the following tasks: (1) reviewing the literature for framing model architecture, (2) determining data needs, compile and organize observations and information, and (3) customizing data compilation to Abu Dhabi required for modeling needs.

In addition, we are reviewing and evaluating the sustainability features essential for technical and institutional factors central to technology policy by undertaking the following tasks: (1) identifying the different sustainable development policies implemented in different countries with emphasis on renewable energy and water, including desalination, (2) defining the organizational and technical elements for incorporation in the technology policy, (3) isolating the most salient barriers to impediments to the technology policy process as currently understood, and select those factors that are most relevant to Abu Dhabi, and (4) distinguishing between structural, behavioral and cognitive factors fundamental to the case studies.