3.9.21-Sustainability-Elsa-Olivetti

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  Environmental benefits attributed to recycling rely on the assumption that we are substituting energy intensive primary production for lower-impact secondary production. However, this argument tends to be a purely engineering lens on a complex socioeconomic system. This presentation will discuss whether closing material and product loops does, in fact, prevent primary production. The basis for this counter argument is that when secondary replaces primary, it decreases the price of secondary and thus more primary will switch to secondary if possible, causing primary price to drop, and driving up demand for more primary which may negate the potential for substitution. There is a strong parallel in this argument to the concept of energy efficiency rebound, and is also referred to as the potential for secondary material to displace primary production. The critical aspects that influence displacement are the ability of secondary products to substitute for primary products, and price effects. This presentation will describe tools and analytical modeling efforts that explore the potential for recycling displacement for the case of commodity materials such as paper, copper and aluminum. These approaches help to assess the contexts under which recycling may reduce a material or product footprint.

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