Mobility of the Future Study

Mobility is already changing in response to evolving demographics, consumer preferences, new business models, connectedness, technology, alternative fuels, and policy. Future changes are anticipated but there is great uncertainty about the pace of change and which mobility options will be adopted. This MIT study, Mobility of the Future, will explore these possibilities and examine how complex interactions between engine technology options, fuel options, refueling infrastructure, consumer choice, public transit options, new transportation modalities, and government policy might shape the future landscape for mobility. The study will provide guidance to industry stakeholders seeking to navigate the significant changes that lie ahead.

A potential major driver of change is public policy related to climate change and environmental concerns. Among all the primary energy use sectors (electricity, transportation, industry, and buildings), transportation is the most challenging sector to decarbonize. Nevertheless, there are substantial opportunities to reduce greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions and fossil-fuel consumption in the transportation sector. Many combinations of higher efficiency vehicles, advanced engines, new fuels, and new modes of transport will be possible in the decades ahead.

Several questions frame this study:
(*) What combination of fuels, vehicles, and technologies will consumers select over the coming decades?
(*) How will the vehicle fleet and fuel mix evolve in response to various carbon policy scenarios?
(*) What are the critical factors that drive uncertainty in future mobility and what are their sensitivities?
(*) Which combination of future mobility options offers the best insurance against key uncertainties?

MIT already has extensive research activities underway in the many dimensions of mobility. For this study, an interdisciplinary project team will synthesize these different areas of research within a system dynamics framework. The study team will bring together economists, engineers, computer scientists, social scientists, and urban planners to cover all aspects of this complex subject.

To conduct the study, MIT will also convene and partner with a diverse consortium composed of leading international companies. Consortium members will help define the project scope and the scenarios to be explored and will engage regularly with researchers throughout the three-year study time period.

The Mobility of the Future study is structured to include a key role for a consortium of corporate members. The consortium will provide valuable industry and business knowledge to inform the analysis, as well as financial support. We anticipate that the study will take three years to complete, starting with a launch date in April 2016. Consortium members will be invited to participate in all workshops and Advisory Committee meetings. Through the Advisory Committee, consortium members will help shape research questions, develop scenarios, and identify critical issues and constraints.