Regional and Global Climate and Societal Impacts of Land-Use and Land-Cover Change in Northern Eurasia: A Synthesis Study Using Remote Sensing Data and An Integrated Global System Model

This cooperative project, led by Purdue University with participation from MIT and the Marine Biological Laboratory, is investigating how patterns of land-use in Northern Eurasia may change in the future due to: 1) Economic pressures for providing food, fiber and fuel to a growing global population; 2) Opportunities for expanding managed ecosystems into areas that experience a more favorable climate in the future; and 3) Abandonment of managed ecosystems in other areas that experience a less favorable climate. MIT's contribution to the study involves the development of global economic scenarios of economic development, population growth, and climate policy that are driving forces for future food, fuel, and forest product demand as well as emissions of greenhouse gases. These scenarios are being developed using the Economic Projection and Policy Analysis (EPPA) model as linked together with the Terrestrial Ecosystems Model (TEM). The existing capabilities of these models, run together, will allow development of land use scenarios for Northern Eurasia as they are affected by economic growth, changes in demand for agriculture, forestry, and biofuels and as further impacted by climate change and other environmental forces. The scenario development will be a crucial component of the overall proposal that links satellite data and historical analysis with future projections to study the possible feedbacks to the climate system of emissions from land use and changes in natural systems from Northern Eurasia.