Climate, Water, and the Environment in Arid Regions

The theme for the project is the impact of climate variability and change on sustainable human habitability in arid regions (UAE and surrounding countries). In UAE, the project will emphasize three environmental indicators: (1) Heat stress; (2) Dust storms; (3) Seasonal precipitation deficits, and (4) Gulf water quality.

The premise is that current climate models used to assess future conditions in arid regions have major shortcomings in key processes that determine the arid lands response to natural and anthropogenic forcing. The approach of the proposed project is to use historical analogues (historical natural variability) for two purposes:

(1) Create performance benchmarks for regional climate models, and
(2) Develop analogue sensitivity analysis and forecast models.

In the modeling front nested regional models of climate system will be assembled and tested with the benchmark historical extreme cases. A hydro‐climatic database will be developed to facilitate exchange and use of research data. The proposed project will develop a suite of models, data sets, and analytical tools to quantitatively assess the impact of climate variability and change in arid regions. These model predictions will provide information needed to support the decision making process in a number of fields including water resources management, public health planning and renewable energy development.

The proposed project will develop a suite of models, data sets, and analytical tools to quantitatively assess the impact of climate variability and change in the UAE and surrounding arid regions. These model predictions will provide information needed to support the decision making process in a number of fields. For instance, the field of public health requires estimates of future values of temperature, humidity (because of the impact of these variables on cardio-respiratory diseases) and wind (because of its link to dust in the air which has a strong impact on respiratory diseases).

The field of renewable energy development needs estimates of radiation, wind, temperature, etc. for the estimation of the future potential of wind and solar energy in the UAE and the whole region.

Finally, the optimal management of water resources requires, the duration, intensity and volume of rainstorms (for the design of urban drainage networks) and the intermittence, duration, volume and magnitude of stream-flows in Wadis (for the design of water retention structures), to give a few examples. The direct socio-economic and environmental impacts of proposed research activities are hence extremely important and vital for the UAE.

Results from proposed research in this project should help bring, Abu Dhabi closer to its goals of increased welfare, security and sustainability for its people and their future.