Risk Assessment for Landslides and Other Natural Threats

Landslides, which occur when earthquakes or heavy rains loosen layers of surface soil, can cause considerable damage and are difficult to predict. This research uses a combination of hydrologic and mechanical models to form the basis for probabilistic modeling of landslides-which in turn is used in risk analysis. In parallel, a methodology based on decision making under uncertainty was and is being developed. The goal of this project is to assess the risks associated with natural threats and, in particular, the effect of countermeasures. The methodology makes use of classic Bayesian updating and Bayesian networks.